#1 Ryan Hall (2:06:17/2:04:58a PR, 59:43 half PR),
He has predicted that the top three men will all run under 2:10:00 in Houston.
Hall seems to think that a lot of people will go sub-2:10 in Houston. That's easy for him to say because a sub-2:10 is a normal occurrence for Hall.
#2 Meb Keflezighi - 2:09:13/61:00
Meb has an Olympic silver medal and an ING New York City title to his name. Additionally, he has gone sub-2:10 seven times and he comes into New York after a PR in his last marathon. As a result, he'd normally appear in our first category of guys that we'd be stunned if they didn't make the team.
#3 Dathan Ritzenhein - 2:10:00/60:00 (How much does that suck to think he couldn't run 1 second faster in both races?)
We debated about where to put Ritzenhein, as many would argue that he's an unproven marathoner at the truly elite level.
Yes, the prodigious talent has never gone sub-2:10 (his PR is 2:10:00), but he did make the 2008 Olympics in the marathon and in Beijing he was the top American finisher in 9th place - one spot ahead of Ryan Hall.
#4 Mo Trafeh - No Marathon PR/60:39 Half PR/29:54 10k PR
Some of you may be asking yourselves who the guy is and where did he come from, as he has never finished a marathon and he's never run faster than 29:54 in the 10,000 according to tilastapaja.org.
Well, trust us, insiders and many fellow competitors are scared to death of this 26-year-old who was born in Morocco but went to HS in the US and college briefly at AZ, and they're worried for the following reasons:
1) The 29:54 that he ran for 10k was run in HS (after running 9:08 for the deuce as a sophomore). He also has good mid-d speed. For example, he ran a 1:50/3:43 double in 2009.
2) He's run way faster than 29:54 in the midst of longer races
#5) Brett Gotcher - 2:10:36/62:09
Given the fact that his 2:10 PR came in Houston two years ago, Gotcher maybe deserves his own category above the people below.
If he's having a fantastic day and Ritz is a little bit off, our brains could rationalize a scenario where Gotcher could beat a Ritz or one of the top 4 (whereas the other guys in this group need to be way off their best games for these guys to beat them), but Gotcher on paper is just not as good as the top 4 guys in our minds. Take the US 10-Mile Champs in October. Gotcher ran very well and was third in 46:51. But who won in 46:46? Mo Trafeh.
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